Italy vs Brazil analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
72.7%
Win probability
2.89
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.9%
6-0
1.4%
7-1
0.7%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
2.2%
5-0
2.9%
6-1
1.6%
7-2
0.4%
8-3
0.1%
+5
5%
4-0
5%
5-1
3.4%
6-2
1%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
9.6%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
5.9%
5-2
2%
6-3
0.4%
7-4
<0%
+3
15.2%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
3.4%
5-3
0.8%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
19.6%
1-0
5%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
4.8%
4-3
1.3%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
19.7%
14.8%
Draw
0-0
1.7%
1-1
5.8%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
0.1%
0
14.8%
12.5%
Win probability
1.17
Expected goals
0-1
2%
1-2
3.4%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
8%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jun. 1938 |
ITA
3 - 1
FRA
76%
13%
11%
|
86 | 66 | 20 | 0 |
| 05 Jun. 1938 |
ITA
2 - 1
NOR
74%
14%
12%
|
86 | 74 | 12 | 0 |
| 22 May. 1938 |
ITA
4 - 0
YUG
81%
11%
8%
|
86 | 64 | 22 | 0 |
| 15 May. 1938 |
ITA
6 - 1
BEL
80%
12%
9%
|
86 | 63 | 23 | 0 |
| 05 Dec. 1937 |
FRA
0 - 0
ITA
33%
24%
43%
|
86 | 63 | 23 | 0 |
Matches
Brazil
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jun. 1938 |
BRA
2 - 1
CSK
52%
21%
27%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Jun. 1938 |
BRA
1 - 1
CSK
51%
21%
28%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 Jun. 1938 |
BRA
6 - 5
POL
58%
19%
23%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | +1 |
| 30 Jan. 1937 |
ARG
1 - 0
BRA
58%
21%
21%
|
77 | 85 | 8 | -1 |
| 19 Jan. 1937 |
BRA
3 - 2
URU
48%
22%
30%
|
76 | 82 | 6 | +1 |