Italy vs Belgium analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
75.8%
Win probability
2.99
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.4%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.3%
9-2
0.1%
+7
1.1%
6-0
1.7%
7-1
0.8%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
2.7%
5-0
3.4%
6-1
1.8%
7-2
0.4%
8-3
0.1%
+5
5.7%
4-0
5.7%
5-1
3.7%
6-2
1%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
10.5%
3-0
7.6%
4-1
6.1%
5-2
2%
6-3
0.4%
7-4
<0%
+3
16.1%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
8.2%
4-2
3.3%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20%
1-0
5.1%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
19.2%
13.6%
Draw
0-0
1.7%
1-1
5.5%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
13.6%
10.5%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
1.8%
1-2
3%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
6.9%
0-2
1%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
2.6%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jun. 1954 |
SUI
2 - 1
ITA
39%
23%
38%
|
87 | 69 | 18 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 1954 |
FRA
1 - 3
ITA
43%
23%
34%
|
87 | 75 | 12 | 0 |
| 24 Jan. 1954 |
ITA
5 - 1
EGY
82%
11%
7%
|
87 | 69 | 18 | 0 |
| 13 Dec. 1953 |
ITA
3 - 0
CSK
75%
14%
11%
|
87 | 79 | 8 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 1953 |
EGY
1 - 2
ITA
38%
24%
39%
|
87 | 69 | 18 | 0 |
Matches
Belgium
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jun. 1954 |
ENG
4 - 4
BEL
81%
11%
8%
|
74 | 87 | 13 | 0 |
| 30 May. 1954 |
BEL
3 - 3
FRA
62%
18%
20%
|
74 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 May. 1954 |
YUG
0 - 2
BEL
77%
13%
10%
|
74 | 84 | 10 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 1954 |
BEL
4 - 0
NED
69%
16%
16%
|
73 | 66 | 7 | +1 |
| 14 Mar. 1954 |
BEL
0 - 0
POR
64%
16%
19%
|
73 | 69 | 4 | 0 |