Italy vs Belgium analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
79.6%
Win probability
3.24
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.4%
9-1
0.2%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.6%
7-0
1%
8-1
0.4%
9-2
0.1%
+7
1.5%
6-0
2.2%
7-1
1.1%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
3.5%
5-0
4.1%
6-1
2.3%
7-2
0.6%
8-3
0.1%
+5
7%
4-0
6.3%
5-1
4.3%
6-2
1.2%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
12%
3-0
7.8%
4-1
6.6%
5-2
2.2%
6-3
0.4%
7-4
0.1%
+3
17.1%
2-0
7.3%
3-1
8.2%
4-2
3.4%
5-3
0.8%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
19.8%
1-0
4.5%
2-1
7.6%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
17.7%
11.8%
Draw
0-0
1.4%
1-1
4.7%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
11.8%
8.5%
Win probability
1.04
Expected goals
0-1
1.4%
1-2
2.4%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
5.7%
0-2
0.8%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
2-6
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Dec. 1937 |
FRA
0 - 0
ITA
33%
24%
43%
|
86 | 64 | 22 | 0 |
| 31 Oct. 1937 |
SUI
2 - 2
ITA
33%
23%
44%
|
87 | 61 | 26 | -1 |
| 27 May. 1937 |
NOR
1 - 3
ITA
44%
23%
33%
|
86 | 75 | 11 | +1 |
| 23 May. 1937 |
CSK
0 - 1
ITA
53%
21%
26%
|
86 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 1937 |
ITA
2 - 0
HUN
65%
17%
18%
|
86 | 81 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Belgium
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 May. 1938 |
SUI
0 - 3
BEL
63%
17%
20%
|
62 | 65 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 1938 |
BEL
1 - 1
NED
35%
21%
44%
|
62 | 78 | 16 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 1938 |
LUX
2 - 3
BEL
48%
20%
32%
|
62 | 56 | 6 | 0 |
| 27 Feb. 1938 |
NED
7 - 2
BEL
75%
14%
11%
|
62 | 78 | 16 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 1938 |
FRA
5 - 3
BEL
59%
19%
22%
|
63 | 65 | 2 | -1 |