Italy vs Belgium analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.3%
Win probability
1.95
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.2%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.3%
3-0
3.9%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
7.8%
2-0
6.1%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
0.1%
+2
14.6%
1-0
6.2%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.9%
21.9%
Draw
0-0
3.2%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
6.8%
3-3
2.2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
21.9%
29.7%
Win probability
1.49
Expected goals
0-1
4.8%
1-2
7%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
16.1%
0-2
3.6%
1-3
3.5%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
8.6%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
3.5%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jan. 1913 |
FRA
1 - 0
ITA
52%
22%
27%
|
73 | 69 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 1912 |
ITA
1 - 3
AUT
66%
18%
16%
|
74 | 72 | 2 | -1 |
| 01 Jul. 1912 |
ITA
1 - 0
SWE
55%
21%
24%
|
73 | 74 | 1 | +1 |
| 29 Jun. 1912 |
ITA
2 - 3
FIN
70%
16%
14%
|
74 | 68 | 6 | -1 |
| 17 Mar. 1912 |
ITA
3 - 4
FRA
71%
16%
13%
|
75 | 68 | 7 | -1 |
Matches
Belgium
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Apr. 1913 |
NED
2 - 4
BEL
70%
16%
14%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 1913 |
BEL
3 - 3
NED
52%
21%
28%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 1913 |
BEL
3 - 0
FRA
76%
13%
11%
|
76 | 69 | 7 | +1 |
| 28 Apr. 1912 |
NED
4 - 3
BEL
70%
16%
15%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | -1 |
| 10 Mar. 1912 |
BEL
1 - 2
NED
57%
19%
24%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |