Italy vs Austria analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
76.5%
Win probability
2.79
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.9%
6-0
1.6%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.3%
5-0
3.5%
6-1
1.5%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.3%
4-0
6.3%
5-1
3.2%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
10.2%
3-0
9%
4-1
5.7%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
16.3%
2-0
9.7%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
2.6%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.9%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.3%
14%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
6.3%
2-2
4%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
14%
9.5%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
0-1
2.3%
1-2
2.8%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
6.6%
0-2
1%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
2.2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jun. 1966 |
ITA
6 - 1
BGR
81%
12%
7%
|
88 | 78 | 10 | 0 |
| 19 Mar. 1966 |
FRA
0 - 0
ITA
38%
25%
37%
|
88 | 79 | 9 | 0 |
| 07 Dec. 1965 |
ITA
3 - 0
SCO
68%
17%
15%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 1965 |
SCO
1 - 0
ITA
43%
24%
32%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 1965 |
ITA
6 - 1
POL
82%
12%
7%
|
88 | 75 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
Austria
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 May. 1966 |
AUT
1 - 0
IRL
72%
16%
12%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 1966 |
AUT
0 - 1
SUN
64%
19%
17%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Oct. 1965 |
DDR
1 - 0
AUT
32%
24%
44%
|
82 | 66 | 16 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 1965 |
ENG
2 - 3
AUT
81%
12%
8%
|
82 | 88 | 6 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 1965 |
BRD
4 - 1
AUT
60%
20%
20%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |