Italy vs Austria analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.3%
Win probability
2.41
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.1%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3%
4-0
4%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.8%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
4.6%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.8%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2.6%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.1%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.9%
18.2%
Draw
0-0
2.9%
1-1
7.9%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
18.2%
16.5%
Win probability
1.14
Expected goals
0-1
3.3%
1-2
4.5%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
10.4%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.3%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Sep. 1960 |
HUN
2 - 1
ITA
88%
8%
5%
|
86 | 91 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 1960 |
ITA
1 - 1
YUG
66%
18%
16%
|
86 | 86 | 0 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 1960 |
ITA
3 - 1
BRA
54%
21%
25%
|
86 | 89 | 3 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 1960 |
ITA
2 - 2
GBR
82%
11%
7%
|
86 | 71 | 15 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 1960 |
ITA
4 - 1
TWN
90%
7%
3%
|
86 | 37 | 49 | 0 |
Matches
Austria
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Nov. 1960 |
HUN
2 - 0
AUT
87%
8%
5%
|
82 | 91 | 9 | 0 |
| 30 Oct. 1960 |
AUT
3 - 0
ESP
50%
21%
29%
|
82 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 1960 |
AUT
3 - 1
SUN
79%
12%
8%
|
82 | 72 | 10 | 0 |
| 22 Jun. 1960 |
NOR
1 - 2
AUT
36%
23%
41%
|
81 | 65 | 16 | +1 |
| 29 May. 1960 |
AUT
4 - 1
SCO
58%
20%
22%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | 0 |