Italy vs Austria analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.4%
Win probability
2.16
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2%
4-0
3%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.1%
3-0
5.6%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.6%
2-0
7.8%
3-1
7%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.5%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.3%
20.4%
Draw
0-0
3.3%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
20.4%
21.2%
Win probability
1.24
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.8%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
5.8%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Nov. 1921 |
CHE
1 - 1
ITA
51%
22%
27%
|
75 | 68 | 7 | 0 |
| 08 May. 1921 |
NLD
2 - 2
ITA
75%
15%
11%
|
75 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 May. 1921 |
BEL
2 - 3
ITA
74%
15%
11%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | +1 |
| 06 Mar. 1921 |
ITA
2 - 1
CHE
65%
18%
16%
|
74 | 69 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 Feb. 1921 |
FRA
1 - 2
ITA
57%
21%
22%
|
73 | 70 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Austria
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul. 1921 |
FIN
2 - 3
AUT
51%
22%
27%
|
74 | 68 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 1921 |
SWE
1 - 3
AUT
60%
20%
21%
|
74 | 71 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 May. 1921 |
DEU
3 - 3
AUT
56%
21%
23%
|
74 | 70 | 4 | 0 |
| 01 May. 1921 |
CHE
2 - 2
AUT
53%
22%
26%
|
74 | 68 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 1921 |
AUT
4 - 1
HUN
49%
22%
30%
|
73 | 80 | 7 | +1 |