Italy vs Argentina analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.6%
Win probability
1.66
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.4%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.7%
2-0
11.2%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.5%
1-0
13.5%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.6%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
8.2%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.3%
19%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
6.9%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
13%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
4.6%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Feb. 1979 |
ITA
3 - 0
NED
62%
23%
15%
|
91 | 88 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 1978 |
ITA
1 - 0
ESP
61%
24%
16%
|
91 | 90 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Nov. 1978 |
CSK
3 - 0
ITA
44%
27%
30%
|
92 | 87 | 5 | -1 |
| 23 Sep. 1978 |
ITA
1 - 0
TUR
83%
13%
4%
|
91 | 71 | 20 | +1 |
| 20 Sep. 1978 |
ITA
1 - 0
BGR
79%
15%
6%
|
91 | 80 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Argentina
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 May. 1979 |
NED
0 - 0
ARG
48%
26%
27%
|
90 | 88 | 2 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 1979 |
ARG
2 - 1
BGR
79%
15%
6%
|
90 | 80 | 10 | 0 |
| 25 Jun. 1978 |
ARG
3 - 1
NED
66%
18%
15%
|
90 | 88 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 Jun. 1978 |
ARG
6 - 0
PER
79%
13%
8%
|
90 | 79 | 11 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 1978 |
ARG
0 - 0
BRA
49%
24%
28%
|
90 | 93 | 3 | 0 |