Italy vs Argentina analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
52%
Win probability
2.1
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
4.1%
3-0
4.3%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
8.9%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
15.6%
1-0
5.9%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
4.7%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.1%
21%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
2.3%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
0.1%
0
21%
27%
Win probability
1.47
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
6.4%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
14.8%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
7.7%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
3.1%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jun. 1954 |
SUI
4 - 1
ITA
40%
23%
37%
|
87 | 70 | 17 | 0 |
| 20 Jun. 1954 |
ITA
4 - 1
BEL
76%
14%
11%
|
87 | 75 | 12 | 0 |
| 17 Jun. 1954 |
SUI
2 - 1
ITA
39%
23%
38%
|
87 | 69 | 18 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 1954 |
FRA
1 - 3
ITA
43%
23%
34%
|
87 | 75 | 12 | 0 |
| 24 Jan. 1954 |
ITA
5 - 1
EGY
82%
11%
7%
|
87 | 69 | 18 | 0 |
Matches
Argentina
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov. 1954 |
POR
1 - 3
ARG
31%
23%
47%
|
90 | 70 | 20 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 1953 |
ARG
1 - 0
ESP
72%
16%
12%
|
90 | 84 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 May. 1953 |
ARG
0 - 0
ENG
57%
20%
24%
|
89 | 88 | 1 | +1 |
| 14 Dec. 1952 |
POR
1 - 3
ARG
32%
23%
46%
|
89 | 69 | 20 | 0 |
| 07 Dec. 1952 |
ESP
0 - 1
ARG
47%
22%
31%
|
89 | 84 | 5 | 0 |