Italy vs Germany analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.6%
Win probability
2.47
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.1%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.8%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
2.3%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
6.4%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
4.6%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
11.9%
2-0
6.6%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
3.1%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
+2
17.9%
1-0
5.3%
2-1
9%
3-2
5.1%
4-3
1.4%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.1%
18.4%
Draw
0-0
2.1%
1-1
7.3%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
2.3%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
18.4%
20%
Win probability
1.37
Expected goals
0-1
2.9%
1-2
5%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
11.7%
0-2
2%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
5.5%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
2%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
2-7
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov. 1955 |
HUN
2 - 0
ITA
84%
10%
6%
|
87 | 92 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 May. 1955 |
ITA
0 - 4
YUG
68%
17%
16%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | -1 |
| 30 Mar. 1955 |
GER
1 - 2
ITA
63%
18%
19%
|
87 | 85 | 2 | +1 |
| 16 Jan. 1955 |
ITA
1 - 0
BEL
76%
14%
10%
|
87 | 76 | 11 | 0 |
| 05 Dec. 1954 |
ITA
2 - 0
ARG
52%
21%
27%
|
87 | 90 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Germany
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Nov. 1955 |
GER
2 - 0
NOR
84%
10%
6%
|
85 | 68 | 17 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 1955 |
SUN
3 - 2
GER
12%
15%
73%
|
85 | 19 | 66 | 0 |
| 28 May. 1955 |
GER
2 - 1
IRL
83%
10%
6%
|
85 | 72 | 13 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 1955 |
GER
1 - 2
ITA
63%
18%
19%
|
85 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Dec. 1954 |
POR
0 - 3
GER
36%
22%
42%
|
85 | 69 | 16 | 0 |