Italy vs Germany analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67.6%
Win probability
2.67
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
1.6%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.8%
4-0
4.2%
5-1
2.8%
6-2
0.8%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
7.9%
3-0
6.3%
4-1
5.2%
5-2
1.7%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.7%
2-0
7.1%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
3.3%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.1%
1-0
5.3%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
4.9%
4-3
1.4%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.7%
16.7%
Draw
0-0
2%
1-1
6.6%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
0.1%
0
16.7%
15.7%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
0-1
2.5%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
9.7%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr. 1940 |
ITA
2 - 1
ROU
78%
13%
10%
|
87 | 71 | 16 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 1940 |
ITA
1 - 1
SUI
79%
12%
8%
|
87 | 72 | 15 | 0 |
| 26 Nov. 1939 |
GER
5 - 2
ITA
52%
21%
27%
|
88 | 82 | 6 | -1 |
| 12 Nov. 1939 |
SUI
3 - 1
ITA
37%
23%
40%
|
88 | 70 | 18 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 1939 |
FIN
2 - 3
ITA
37%
23%
40%
|
88 | 58 | 30 | 0 |
Matches
Germany
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr. 1940 |
GER
1 - 2
YUG
82%
11%
8%
|
83 | 64 | 19 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 1940 |
GER
2 - 2
HUN
62%
18%
21%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Dec. 1939 |
GER
3 - 1
SVK
76%
14%
11%
|
83 | 74 | 9 | 0 |
| 26 Nov. 1939 |
GER
5 - 2
ITA
52%
21%
27%
|
82 | 88 | 6 | +1 |
| 12 Nov. 1939 |
GER
4 - 4
MOR
71%
15%
13%
|
82 | 75 | 7 | 0 |