Italy vs Germany analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
68.3%
Win probability
2.73
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
1.7%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
1.3%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
4%
4-0
4.3%
5-1
2.9%
6-2
0.8%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
8.2%
3-0
6.3%
4-1
5.4%
5-2
1.8%
6-3
0.4%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.9%
2-0
6.9%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
3.4%
5-3
0.8%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
19.1%
1-0
5.1%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
5%
4-3
1.4%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.4%
16.3%
Draw
0-0
1.9%
1-1
6.4%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
2.1%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
0.1%
0
16.3%
15.4%
Win probability
1.26
Expected goals
0-1
2.3%
1-2
4%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
9.4%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
4.1%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Mar. 1939 |
ITA
3 - 2
DEN
77%
14%
10%
|
87 | 77 | 10 | 0 |
| 04 Dec. 1938 |
ITA
1 - 0
FRA
77%
13%
10%
|
87 | 66 | 21 | 0 |
| 20 Nov. 1938 |
ITA
2 - 0
SUI
82%
11%
7%
|
87 | 65 | 22 | 0 |
| 19 Jun. 1938 |
ITA
4 - 2
HUN
64%
17%
19%
|
87 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 Jun. 1938 |
ITA
2 - 1
BRA
73%
15%
13%
|
87 | 77 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Germany
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Mar. 1939 |
LUX
2 - 1
GER
27%
21%
52%
|
82 | 54 | 28 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 1939 |
GER
3 - 2
YUG
80%
12%
8%
|
82 | 64 | 18 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 1939 |
BEL
1 - 4
GER
33%
22%
46%
|
82 | 61 | 21 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 1938 |
ROU
1 - 4
GER
42%
22%
36%
|
81 | 71 | 10 | +1 |
| 18 Sep. 1938 |
GER
4 - 1
POL
71%
15%
14%
|
81 | 72 | 9 | 0 |