Italy vs Germany analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.2%
Win probability
2.65
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
1.5%
5-0
2.1%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.6%
4-0
4%
5-1
2.7%
6-2
0.8%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
7.6%
3-0
6%
4-1
5.1%
5-2
1.8%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.3%
2-0
6.8%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
3.3%
5-3
0.8%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
18.8%
1-0
5.1%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
5%
4-3
1.4%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.7%
17%
Draw
0-0
1.9%
1-1
6.7%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
2.2%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
17%
16.8%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
0-1
2.5%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
10.1%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
4.5%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov. 1932 |
ITA
4 - 2
HUN
59%
19%
22%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 28 Oct. 1932 |
CSK
2 - 1
ITA
61%
19%
20%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 May. 1932 |
HUN
1 - 1
ITA
62%
18%
20%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 1932 |
FRA
1 - 2
ITA
38%
23%
39%
|
82 | 61 | 21 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 1932 |
AUT
2 - 1
ITA
63%
19%
18%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Germany
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Dec. 1932 |
GER
0 - 2
NED
60%
18%
22%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 Oct. 1932 |
HUN
2 - 1
GER
63%
18%
19%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | -1 |
| 25 Sep. 1932 |
GER
4 - 3
SWE
53%
20%
27%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | +1 |
| 01 Jul. 1932 |
FIN
1 - 4
GER
43%
21%
37%
|
77 | 59 | 18 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 1932 |
GER
2 - 0
SUI
77%
13%
10%
|
76 | 59 | 17 | +1 |