Italy vs West Germany analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45.6%
Win probability
1.71
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.6%
3-0
3.8%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.7%
2-0
6.7%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.8%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.4%
23.6%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.6%
30.9%
Win probability
1.37
Expected goals
0-1
6.3%
1-2
7.4%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
17.2%
0-2
4.3%
1-3
3.4%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
8.8%
0-3
2%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.4%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Jul. 1982 |
POL
0 - 2
ITA
61%
20%
19%
|
91 | 89 | 2 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 1982 |
ITA
3 - 2
BRA
43%
25%
32%
|
91 | 96 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 Jun. 1982 |
ITA
2 - 1
ARG
56%
22%
22%
|
91 | 91 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Jun. 1982 |
ITA
1 - 1
CMR
83%
12%
6%
|
91 | 73 | 18 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 1982 |
ITA
1 - 1
PER
79%
14%
8%
|
91 | 80 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
West Germany
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Jul. 1982 |
BRD
3 - 3
FRA
83%
11%
6%
|
95 | 87 | 8 | 0 |
| 02 Jul. 1982 |
BRD
2 - 1
ESP
83%
11%
6%
|
94 | 89 | 5 | +1 |
| 29 Jun. 1982 |
BRD
0 - 0
ENG
72%
16%
13%
|
94 | 92 | 2 | 0 |
| 25 Jun. 1982 |
BRD
1 - 0
AUT
84%
11%
6%
|
94 | 88 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 Jun. 1982 |
BRD
4 - 1
CHI
89%
8%
4%
|
94 | 81 | 13 | 0 |