Italy vs West Germany analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
71%
Win probability
2.59
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.6%
5-0
2.6%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4%
4-0
5.1%
5-1
2.7%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
8.4%
3-0
7.8%
4-1
5.2%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.6%
2-0
9%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.2%
1-0
7%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.4%
16.2%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
7.1%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
16.2%
12.7%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
0-1
2.8%
1-2
3.7%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
8.4%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.1%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jun. 1970 |
ITA
4 - 1
MEX
81%
12%
8%
|
91 | 82 | 9 | 0 |
| 11 Jun. 1970 |
ITA
0 - 0
ISR
85%
10%
6%
|
91 | 70 | 21 | 0 |
| 06 Jun. 1970 |
URU
0 - 0
ITA
46%
25%
29%
|
91 | 84 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 Jun. 1970 |
ITA
1 - 0
SWE
74%
15%
12%
|
91 | 87 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 May. 1970 |
POR
1 - 2
ITA
31%
27%
42%
|
90 | 80 | 10 | +1 |
Matches
West Germany
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jun. 1970 |
BRD
3 - 2
ENG
58%
20%
22%
|
89 | 91 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 Jun. 1970 |
BRD
3 - 1
PER
81%
11%
8%
|
89 | 79 | 10 | 0 |
| 07 Jun. 1970 |
BRD
5 - 2
BGR
81%
11%
7%
|
88 | 81 | 7 | +1 |
| 03 Jun. 1970 |
BRD
2 - 1
MAR
84%
10%
6%
|
88 | 73 | 15 | 0 |
| 13 May. 1970 |
BRD
1 - 0
YUG
67%
18%
15%
|
88 | 85 | 3 | 0 |