Northern Ireland vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
18.4%
Win probability
0.73
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.7%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.9%
2-0
2.9%
3-1
1%
4-2
0.1%
5-3
<0%
+2
4.1%
1-0
8%
2-1
4.3%
3-2
0.8%
4-3
0.1%
+1
13.2%
26.5%
Draw
0-0
11%
1-1
11.8%
2-2
3.2%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
26.5%
55.2%
Win probability
1.48
Expected goals
0-1
16.3%
1-2
8.8%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
26.8%
0-2
12%
1-3
4.3%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0%
-2
17%
0-3
5.9%
1-4
1.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
7.7%
0-4
2.2%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0%
-4
2.7%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.8%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-7%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Northern Ireland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Sep. 2010 |
SVN
0 - 1
NIR
60%
24%
16%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2010 |
MNE
2 - 0
NIR
32%
27%
41%
|
83 | 70 | 13 | -1 |
| 30 May. 2010 |
CHI
1 - 0
NIR
70%
20%
10%
|
83 | 90 | 7 | 0 |
| 26 May. 2010 |
NIR
0 - 2
TUR
27%
28%
45%
|
83 | 91 | 8 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2010 |
ALB
1 - 0
NIR
34%
29%
37%
|
84 | 75 | 9 | -1 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Sep. 2010 |
ITA
5 - 0
FRO
75%
18%
8%
|
95 | 51 | 44 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 2010 |
EST
1 - 2
ITA
12%
25%
63%
|
95 | 69 | 26 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2010 |
ITA
0 - 1
CIV
67%
21%
12%
|
95 | 86 | 9 | 0 |
| 24 Jun. 2010 |
SVK
3 - 2
ITA
11%
19%
70%
|
96 | 85 | 11 | -1 |
| 20 Jun. 2010 |
ITA
1 - 1
NZL
89%
9%
2%
|
96 | 70 | 26 | 0 |