Northern Ireland vs England analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
19.9%
Win probability
1.29
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.5%
3-0
0.9%
4-1
0.7%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
1.9%
2-0
2.2%
3-1
2.2%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
5.4%
1-0
3.4%
2-1
5.1%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
11.9%
19.1%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
8%
2-2
6%
3-3
2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
19.1%
61%
Win probability
2.34
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
9.4%
2-3
4.7%
3-4
1.2%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
21.7%
0-2
7.3%
1-3
7.3%
2-4
2.8%
3-5
0.6%
4-6
0.1%
-2
18%
0-3
5.7%
1-4
4.3%
2-5
1.3%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
11.5%
0-4
3.3%
1-5
2%
2-6
0.5%
3-7
0.1%
-4
5.9%
0-5
1.6%
1-6
0.8%
2-7
0.2%
3-8
0%
-5
2.5%
0-6
0.6%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0%
-6
0.9%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0.1%
2-9
0%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Northern Ireland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Apr. 1964 |
NIR
3 - 0
URU
35%
22%
43%
|
66 | 83 | 17 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 1964 |
WAL
2 - 3
NIR
67%
17%
16%
|
65 | 74 | 9 | +1 |
| 20 Nov. 1963 |
ENG
8 - 3
NIR
91%
6%
3%
|
65 | 88 | 23 | 0 |
| 30 Oct. 1963 |
NIR
0 - 1
ESP
35%
23%
43%
|
65 | 85 | 20 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 1963 |
NIR
2 - 1
SCO
34%
22%
44%
|
64 | 84 | 20 | +1 |
Matches
England
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Jun. 1964 |
ARG
1 - 0
ENG
47%
22%
31%
|
88 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Jun. 1964 |
ENG
1 - 1
POR
90%
7%
3%
|
88 | 71 | 17 | 0 |
| 30 May. 1964 |
BRA
5 - 1
ENG
55%
20%
25%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | -1 |
| 27 May. 1964 |
USA
0 - 10
ENG
25%
20%
54%
|
89 | 65 | 24 | 0 |
| 24 May. 1964 |
IRL
1 - 3
ENG
28%
21%
51%
|
88 | 75 | 13 | +1 |