Northern Ireland vs Wales analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.7%
Win probability
2.24
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.1%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5%
3-0
5%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.3%
2-0
6.7%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
16.9%
1-0
6%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4.8%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.5%
20.1%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
2.2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
0.1%
0
20.1%
23.2%
Win probability
1.38
Expected goals
0-1
3.7%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
13.3%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
6.5%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Northern Ireland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar. 1965 |
NIR
2 - 1
NED
55%
20%
25%
|
67 | 72 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Nov. 1964 |
SCO
3 - 2
NIR
75%
15%
10%
|
67 | 84 | 17 | 0 |
| 14 Nov. 1964 |
SUI
2 - 1
NIR
60%
19%
21%
|
68 | 63 | 5 | -1 |
| 14 Oct. 1964 |
NIR
1 - 0
SUI
68%
16%
16%
|
67 | 64 | 3 | +1 |
| 03 Oct. 1964 |
NIR
3 - 4
ENG
20%
19%
61%
|
68 | 88 | 20 | -1 |
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar. 1965 |
WAL
4 - 1
GRC
57%
19%
24%
|
73 | 67 | 6 | 0 |
| 09 Dec. 1964 |
GRC
2 - 0
WAL
45%
21%
34%
|
74 | 67 | 7 | -1 |
| 18 Nov. 1964 |
ENG
2 - 1
WAL
88%
8%
4%
|
74 | 88 | 14 | 0 |
| 21 Oct. 1964 |
DEN
1 - 0
WAL
64%
18%
18%
|
74 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Oct. 1964 |
WAL
3 - 2
SCO
36%
23%
41%
|
74 | 84 | 10 | 0 |