Northern Ireland vs Wales analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.6%
Win probability
2.22
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.9%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
4.7%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
9.7%
2-0
6.1%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
16.3%
1-0
5.5%
2-1
9%
3-2
4.9%
4-3
1.3%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.1%
20.2%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
2.4%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
20.2%
25.1%
Win probability
1.47
Expected goals
0-1
3.7%
1-2
6%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.9%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
14%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
7.1%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Northern Ireland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov. 1962 |
NIR
2 - 0
POL
56%
20%
25%
|
63 | 72 | 9 | 0 |
| 07 Nov. 1962 |
SCO
5 - 1
NIR
76%
15%
10%
|
64 | 83 | 19 | -1 |
| 20 Oct. 1962 |
NIR
1 - 3
ENG
21%
20%
59%
|
65 | 88 | 23 | -1 |
| 10 Oct. 1962 |
POL
0 - 2
NIR
73%
15%
13%
|
63 | 73 | 10 | +2 |
| 09 May. 1962 |
NED
4 - 0
NIR
73%
14%
13%
|
64 | 70 | 6 | -1 |
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar. 1963 |
WAL
1 - 1
HUN
14%
18%
68%
|
74 | 91 | 17 | 0 |
| 21 Nov. 1962 |
ENG
4 - 0
WAL
89%
7%
4%
|
74 | 88 | 14 | 0 |
| 07 Nov. 1962 |
HUN
3 - 1
WAL
90%
7%
3%
|
74 | 91 | 17 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 1962 |
WAL
2 - 3
SCO
41%
23%
36%
|
75 | 83 | 8 | -1 |
| 22 May. 1962 |
MEX
2 - 1
WAL
65%
18%
17%
|
75 | 78 | 3 | 0 |