Northern Ireland vs Wales analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
44.5%
Win probability
2.2
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
3.4%
3-0
2.8%
4-1
3%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
7.4%
2-0
3.8%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
2.9%
5-3
0.8%
6-4
0.2%
7-5
<0%
+2
13.1%
1-0
3.4%
2-1
7.4%
3-2
5.3%
4-3
1.9%
5-4
0.4%
6-5
0.1%
+1
18.5%
20.1%
Draw
0-0
1.6%
1-1
6.7%
2-2
7.3%
3-3
3.5%
4-4
0.9%
5-5
0.2%
6-6
<0%
0
20.1%
35.4%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
6.6%
2-3
4.7%
3-4
1.7%
4-5
0.4%
5-6
0.1%
-1
16.5%
0-2
3%
1-3
4.3%
2-4
2.3%
3-5
0.7%
4-6
0.1%
5-7
0%
-2
10.4%
0-3
2%
1-4
2.1%
2-5
0.9%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
5.2%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0.1%
-4
2.1%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Northern Ireland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Nov. 1948 |
SCO
3 - 2
NIR
74%
15%
11%
|
64 | 81 | 17 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 1948 |
NIR
2 - 6
ENG
24%
20%
56%
|
65 | 87 | 22 | -1 |
| 11 Aug. 1948 |
NIR
5 - 0
USA
44%
20%
37%
|
63 | 68 | 5 | +2 |
| 10 Mar. 1948 |
WAL
2 - 0
NIR
68%
16%
16%
|
64 | 72 | 8 | -1 |
| 05 Nov. 1947 |
ENG
2 - 2
NIR
86%
9%
5%
|
63 | 86 | 23 | +1 |
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov. 1948 |
ENG
1 - 0
WAL
84%
10%
6%
|
71 | 87 | 16 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 1948 |
WAL
1 - 3
SCO
47%
22%
32%
|
72 | 81 | 9 | -1 |
| 10 Mar. 1948 |
WAL
2 - 0
NIR
68%
16%
16%
|
72 | 64 | 8 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 1947 |
SCO
1 - 2
WAL
70%
16%
13%
|
70 | 82 | 12 | +2 |
| 18 Oct. 1947 |
WAL
0 - 3
ENG
29%
20%
51%
|
71 | 86 | 15 | -1 |