Northern Ireland vs Bulgaria analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
46.4%
Win probability
1.62
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.4%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.6%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
5%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.3%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.5%
29.2%
Win probability
1.24
Expected goals
0-1
7.1%
1-2
7.1%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
17%
0-2
4.4%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.2%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.9%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-6%
-9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Northern Ireland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Feb. 1979 |
ENG
4 - 0
NIR
84%
12%
4%
|
77 | 92 | 15 | 0 |
| 29 Nov. 1978 |
BGR
0 - 2
NIR
65%
20%
15%
|
76 | 80 | 4 | +1 |
| 25 Oct. 1978 |
NIR
2 - 1
DEN
46%
24%
30%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 1978 |
IRL
0 - 0
NIR
54%
23%
24%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 May. 1978 |
WAL
1 - 0
NIR
56%
23%
22%
|
76 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Bulgaria
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr. 1979 |
ARG
2 - 1
BGR
79%
15%
6%
|
80 | 90 | 10 | 0 |
| 28 Mar. 1979 |
SUN
3 - 1
BGR
76%
17%
7%
|
80 | 90 | 10 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 1979 |
BGR
1 - 0
DDR
33%
27%
40%
|
80 | 88 | 8 | 0 |
| 16 Jan. 1979 |
CYP
0 - 1
BGR
25%
23%
52%
|
80 | 56 | 24 | 0 |
| 29 Nov. 1978 |
BGR
0 - 2
NIR
65%
20%
15%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | 0 |