Iraq vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
27%
Win probability
0.77
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
1.3%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.6%
2-0
5%
3-1
1.3%
4-2
0.1%
+2
6.4%
1-0
12.9%
2-1
5.1%
3-2
0.7%
4-3
<0%
+1
18.7%
32.7%
Draw
0-0
16.8%
1-1
13.1%
2-2
2.6%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
32.7%
40.3%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
0-1
17%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
24.6%
0-2
8.6%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
11.1%
0-3
2.9%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0%
-3
3.5%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Iraq
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep. 1988 |
IRQ
3 - 0
GTM
55%
27%
18%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 1988 |
ZAM
2 - 2
IRQ
46%
28%
27%
|
83 | 73 | 10 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 1988 |
IRQ
1 - 1
SYR
78%
14%
8%
|
83 | 64 | 19 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 1988 |
JOR
0 - 3
IRQ
13%
23%
64%
|
83 | 59 | 24 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 1988 |
EGY
0 - 0
IRQ
47%
28%
25%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep. 1988 |
ZAM
4 - 0
ITA
28%
31%
41%
|
93 | 73 | 20 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 1988 |
ITA
5 - 2
GTM
79%
15%
6%
|
93 | 75 | 18 | 0 |
| 22 Jun. 1988 |
SUN
2 - 0
ITA
65%
20%
15%
|
93 | 93 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 Jun. 1988 |
ITA
2 - 0
DEN
76%
15%
9%
|
93 | 87 | 6 | 0 |
| 14 Jun. 1988 |
ITA
1 - 0
ESP
65%
19%
15%
|
93 | 91 | 2 | 0 |