England vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63%
Win probability
2.54
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.1%
4-0
3.5%
5-1
2.4%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
6.8%
3-0
5.5%
4-1
4.8%
5-2
1.7%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.3%
2-0
6.5%
3-1
7.5%
4-2
3.3%
5-3
0.8%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
18.1%
1-0
5.1%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
5.1%
4-3
1.5%
5-4
0.3%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.9%
18%
Draw
0-0
2%
1-1
7%
2-2
6%
3-3
2.3%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
18%
19.1%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
0-1
2.8%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
11.2%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
5.2%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
2-7
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
England
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Nov. 1949 |
ENG
9 - 2
NIR
86%
9%
5%
|
87 | 64 | 23 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 1949 |
WAL
1 - 4
ENG
28%
20%
52%
|
87 | 70 | 17 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 1949 |
ENG
0 - 2
IRL
86%
9%
5%
|
88 | 69 | 19 | -1 |
| 22 May. 1949 |
FRA
1 - 3
ENG
30%
21%
50%
|
87 | 73 | 14 | +1 |
| 18 May. 1949 |
NOR
1 - 4
ENG
33%
20%
47%
|
87 | 71 | 16 | 0 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jun. 1949 |
HUN
1 - 1
ITA
58%
19%
23%
|
89 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 May. 1949 |
ITA
3 - 1
AUT
75%
14%
12%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | +1 |
| 27 Mar. 1949 |
ESP
1 - 3
ITA
48%
22%
30%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Feb. 1949 |
ITA
4 - 1
POR
84%
10%
6%
|
88 | 72 | 16 | 0 |
| 05 Aug. 1948 |
DEN
5 - 3
ITA
43%
22%
35%
|
88 | 79 | 9 | 0 |