England vs Northern Ireland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
88.4%
Win probability
3.64
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.4%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.5%
8-0
1%
9-1
0.3%
10-2
<0%
+8
1.3%
7-0
2.1%
8-1
0.7%
9-2
0.1%
+7
2.9%
6-0
4.1%
7-1
1.6%
8-2
0.3%
9-3
<0%
+6
5.9%
5-0
6.7%
6-1
3%
7-2
0.6%
8-3
0.1%
+5
10.4%
4-0
9.2%
5-1
4.9%
6-2
1.1%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
15.4%
3-0
10.1%
4-1
6.8%
5-2
1.8%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
19%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.7%
1-0
4.6%
2-1
6.1%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
14.1%
7.6%
Draw
0-0
1.3%
1-1
3.4%
2-2
2.2%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
7.6%
3.8%
Win probability
0.73
Expected goals
0-1
0.9%
1-2
1.2%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
2.8%
0-2
0.3%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
0.8%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
England
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct. 1965 |
ENG
2 - 3
AUT
81%
12%
8%
|
89 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 1965 |
WAL
0 - 0
ENG
21%
20%
59%
|
89 | 74 | 15 | 0 |
| 16 May. 1965 |
SWE
1 - 2
ENG
49%
21%
30%
|
88 | 87 | 1 | +1 |
| 12 May. 1965 |
BRD
0 - 1
ENG
37%
22%
41%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 09 May. 1965 |
YUG
1 - 1
ENG
46%
21%
33%
|
88 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Northern Ireland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Oct. 1965 |
NIR
3 - 2
SCO
34%
22%
44%
|
68 | 85 | 17 | 0 |
| 07 May. 1965 |
NIR
4 - 1
ALB
61%
18%
21%
|
67 | 66 | 1 | +1 |
| 07 Apr. 1965 |
NED
0 - 0
NIR
67%
17%
16%
|
67 | 71 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 1965 |
NIR
0 - 5
WAL
57%
20%
23%
|
68 | 74 | 6 | -1 |
| 17 Mar. 1965 |
NIR
2 - 1
NED
55%
20%
25%
|
67 | 72 | 5 | +1 |