England vs Northern Ireland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
92.3%
Win probability
4.02
Expected goals
10-0
0.3%
+10
0.3%
9-0
0.7%
10-1
0.2%
+9
0.9%
8-0
1.7%
9-1
0.4%
10-2
0.1%
+8
2.2%
7-0
3.3%
8-1
1%
9-2
0.1%
10-3
<0%
+7
4.4%
6-0
5.8%
7-1
2%
8-2
0.3%
9-3
<0%
+6
8.1%
5-0
8.6%
6-1
3.5%
7-2
0.6%
8-3
0.1%
+5
12.7%
4-0
10.7%
5-1
5.2%
6-2
1%
7-3
0.1%
+4
17%
3-0
10.7%
4-1
6.4%
5-2
1.6%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
18.9%
2-0
8%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.7%
1-0
4%
2-1
4.8%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
11.1%
5.3%
Draw
0-0
1%
1-1
2.4%
2-2
1.4%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
0.1%
0
5.3%
2.1%
Win probability
0.6
Expected goals
0-1
0.6%
1-2
0.7%
2-3
0.3%
3-4
0.1%
-1
1.7%
0-2
0.2%
1-3
0.1%
2-4
0%
-2
0.4%
0-3
0%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
England
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct. 1961 |
ENG
2 - 0
POR
91%
6%
3%
|
88 | 70 | 18 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 1961 |
WAL
1 - 1
ENG
21%
20%
59%
|
88 | 75 | 13 | 0 |
| 28 Sep. 1961 |
ENG
4 - 1
LUX
90%
6%
3%
|
88 | 55 | 33 | 0 |
| 27 May. 1961 |
AUT
3 - 1
ENG
39%
21%
40%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 May. 1961 |
ITA
2 - 3
ENG
44%
22%
34%
|
88 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Northern Ireland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct. 1961 |
NIR
2 - 0
GRC
61%
17%
22%
|
64 | 64 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 1961 |
NIR
1 - 6
SCO
39%
22%
38%
|
64 | 82 | 18 | 0 |
| 10 May. 1961 |
BRD
2 - 1
NIR
78%
13%
9%
|
65 | 82 | 17 | -1 |
| 03 May. 1961 |
GRC
2 - 1
NIR
56%
20%
25%
|
65 | 64 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 1961 |
ITA
3 - 2
NIR
78%
13%
8%
|
65 | 86 | 21 | 0 |