England vs Wales analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
86.5%
Win probability
3.64
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.3%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.5%
8-0
0.8%
9-1
0.3%
10-2
<0%
+8
1.2%
7-0
1.9%
8-1
0.7%
9-2
0.1%
10-3
<0%
+7
2.7%
6-0
3.6%
7-1
1.6%
8-2
0.3%
9-3
<0%
+6
5.5%
5-0
5.9%
6-1
3.1%
7-2
0.7%
8-3
0.1%
+5
9.8%
4-0
8.1%
5-1
5.1%
6-2
1.3%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
14.7%
3-0
8.9%
4-1
7%
5-2
2.2%
6-3
0.4%
7-4
<0%
+3
18.5%
2-0
7.3%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
3%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18.7%
1-0
4%
2-1
6.3%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
14.7%
8.5%
Draw
0-0
1.1%
1-1
3.5%
2-2
2.7%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
8.5%
4.8%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
0-1
1%
1-2
1.5%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
3.5%
0-2
0.4%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
England
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Oct. 1956 |
NIR
1 - 1
ENG
27%
21%
52%
|
88 | 61 | 27 | 0 |
| 26 May. 1956 |
GER
1 - 3
ENG
54%
20%
26%
|
88 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 May. 1956 |
FIN
1 - 5
ENG
29%
20%
50%
|
88 | 50 | 38 | 0 |
| 16 May. 1956 |
SWE
0 - 0
ENG
56%
19%
26%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 May. 1956 |
ENG
4 - 2
BRA
69%
16%
15%
|
87 | 86 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct. 1956 |
WAL
2 - 2
SCO
40%
23%
38%
|
69 | 83 | 14 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 1956 |
WAL
1 - 1
NIR
67%
16%
17%
|
69 | 60 | 9 | 0 |
| 23 Nov. 1955 |
WAL
1 - 2
AUT
38%
22%
40%
|
70 | 83 | 13 | -1 |
| 09 Nov. 1955 |
SCO
2 - 0
WAL
69%
17%
14%
|
70 | 82 | 12 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 1955 |
WAL
2 - 1
ENG
29%
21%
50%
|
69 | 87 | 18 | +1 |