England vs Wales analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
79.6%
Win probability
3.16
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.4%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.5%
7-0
1%
8-1
0.4%
9-2
0.1%
+7
1.4%
6-0
2.2%
7-1
1%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
3.4%
5-0
4.1%
6-1
2.2%
7-2
0.5%
8-3
0.1%
+5
6.8%
4-0
6.5%
5-1
4.1%
6-2
1.1%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
11.9%
3-0
8.3%
4-1
6.5%
5-2
2%
6-3
0.4%
7-4
<0%
+3
17.2%
2-0
7.9%
3-1
8.2%
4-2
3.2%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20%
1-0
5%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
18.1%
12%
Draw
0-0
1.6%
1-1
4.9%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
12%
8.3%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
0-1
1.6%
1-2
2.5%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
-1
5.7%
0-2
0.8%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
-2
2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
2-6
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
England
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep. 1946 |
IRL
0 - 1
ENG
33%
21%
47%
|
86 | 73 | 13 | 0 |
| 28 Sep. 1946 |
NIR
2 - 7
ENG
22%
20%
58%
|
85 | 61 | 24 | +1 |
| 11 May. 1946 |
ENG
4 - 1
SUI
80%
12%
8%
|
85 | 73 | 12 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 1943 |
ENG
8 - 3
WAL
78%
13%
9%
|
85 | 71 | 14 | 0 |
| 24 May. 1939 |
ROU
0 - 2
ENG
33%
21%
46%
|
85 | 71 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct. 1946 |
WAL
3 - 1
SCO
40%
23%
37%
|
71 | 83 | 12 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 1943 |
ENG
8 - 3
WAL
78%
13%
9%
|
71 | 85 | 14 | 0 |
| 21 May. 1939 |
FRA
2 - 1
WAL
58%
20%
23%
|
72 | 68 | 4 | -1 |
| 15 Mar. 1939 |
WAL
3 - 1
NIR
71%
16%
13%
|
71 | 61 | 10 | +1 |
| 09 Nov. 1938 |
SCO
3 - 2
WAL
69%
17%
14%
|
72 | 83 | 11 | -1 |