England vs Wales analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
83.3%
Win probability
3
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.4%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.5%
7-0
1.1%
8-1
0.3%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.4%
6-0
2.5%
7-1
0.7%
8-2
0.1%
+6
3.4%
5-0
5.1%
6-1
1.7%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
7.1%
4-0
8.4%
5-1
3.5%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
12.6%
3-0
11.3%
4-1
5.8%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
18.4%
2-0
11.3%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.3%
1-0
7.5%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
18.4%
11%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
5.2%
2-2
2.7%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
11%
5.6%
Win probability
0.69
Expected goals
0-1
1.7%
1-2
1.8%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
4.2%
0-2
0.6%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.1%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
England
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct. 1919 |
INE
1 - 1
ENG
20%
21%
60%
|
83 | 57 | 26 | 0 |
| 05 Jun. 1914 |
DEN
3 - 0
ENG
51%
21%
28%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 1914 |
SCO
3 - 1
ENG
36%
24%
41%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | -1 |
| 16 Mar. 1914 |
WAL
0 - 2
ENG
22%
22%
56%
|
84 | 62 | 22 | 0 |
| 14 Feb. 1914 |
ENG
0 - 3
INE
88%
8%
4%
|
84 | 54 | 30 | 0 |
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Feb. 1920 |
WAL
1 - 1
SCO
36%
25%
39%
|
62 | 77 | 15 | 0 |
| 14 Feb. 1920 |
IDI
2 - 2
WAL
68%
18%
14%
|
62 | 65 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 1914 |
WAL
0 - 2
ENG
22%
22%
56%
|
62 | 84 | 22 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 1914 |
SCO
0 - 0
WAL
75%
15%
10%
|
62 | 76 | 14 | 0 |
| 19 Jan. 1914 |
WAL
1 - 2
INE
77%
14%
9%
|
63 | 53 | 10 | -1 |