England vs Wales analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
87.3%
Win probability
3.48
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.3%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.4%
8-0
0.8%
9-1
0.2%
10-2
<0%
+8
1%
7-0
1.8%
8-1
0.6%
9-2
0.1%
+7
2.5%
6-0
3.7%
7-1
1.3%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
5.2%
5-0
6.3%
6-1
2.7%
7-2
0.5%
8-3
0.1%
+5
9.5%
4-0
9.1%
5-1
4.6%
6-2
1%
7-3
0.1%
+4
14.8%
3-0
10.5%
4-1
6.6%
5-2
1.7%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
19%
2-0
9.1%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.5%
1-0
5.2%
2-1
6.6%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
15.2%
8.4%
Draw
0-0
1.5%
1-1
3.8%
2-2
2.4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
8.4%
4.2%
Win probability
0.72
Expected goals
0-1
1.1%
1-2
1.4%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
3.2%
0-2
0.4%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
0.8%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
England
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Mar. 1909 |
ENG
9 - 0
GER
73%
15%
12%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
| 13 Feb. 1909 |
ENG
4 - 0
IDI
84%
10%
6%
|
81 | 66 | 15 | 0 |
| 13 Jun. 1908 |
BOH
0 - 4
ENG
43%
23%
35%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | +1 |
| 10 Jun. 1908 |
HUN
0 - 7
ENG
43%
23%
35%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 08 Jun. 1908 |
AUT
1 - 11
ENG
51%
21%
28%
|
79 | 74 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Mar. 1909 |
WAL
3 - 2
SCO
34%
24%
42%
|
62 | 75 | 13 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 1908 |
WAL
0 - 1
IDI
54%
21%
25%
|
62 | 65 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 1908 |
WAL
1 - 7
ENG
30%
24%
46%
|
63 | 78 | 15 | -1 |
| 07 Mar. 1908 |
SCO
2 - 1
WAL
76%
14%
10%
|
64 | 74 | 10 | -1 |
| 18 Mar. 1907 |
ENG
1 - 1
WAL
6%
17%
77%
|
64 | 20 | 44 | 0 |