England vs Wales analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
68%
Win probability
2.2
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.7%
4-0
4.6%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.6%
3-0
8.4%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.1%
2-0
11.4%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.5%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.7%
18.7%
Draw
0-0
4.7%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.7%
13.2%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
4%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.2%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.1%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
England
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb. 1905 |
ENG
1 - 1
IDI
63%
21%
16%
|
77 | 70 | 7 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 1904 |
SCO
0 - 1
ENG
37%
24%
39%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 1904 |
IDI
1 - 3
ENG
34%
26%
40%
|
76 | 70 | 6 | +1 |
| 29 Feb. 1904 |
WAL
2 - 2
ENG
25%
25%
50%
|
77 | 60 | 17 | -1 |
| 04 Apr. 1903 |
ENG
1 - 2
SCO
57%
22%
21%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Mar. 1905 |
WAL
3 - 1
SCO
25%
24%
50%
|
60 | 74 | 14 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 1904 |
WAL
0 - 1
IDI
31%
25%
43%
|
61 | 69 | 8 | -1 |
| 12 Mar. 1904 |
SCO
1 - 1
WAL
67%
19%
14%
|
60 | 75 | 15 | +1 |
| 29 Feb. 1904 |
WAL
2 - 2
ENG
25%
25%
50%
|
60 | 77 | 17 | 0 |
| 28 Mar. 1903 |
IDI
2 - 0
WAL
63%
21%
17%
|
61 | 69 | 8 | -1 |