England vs Belgium analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
87.1%
Win probability
3.62
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.4%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.5%
8-0
0.9%
9-1
0.3%
10-2
<0%
+8
1.2%
7-0
1.9%
8-1
0.7%
9-2
0.1%
10-3
<0%
+7
2.8%
6-0
3.7%
7-1
1.6%
8-2
0.3%
9-3
<0%
+6
5.6%
5-0
6.1%
6-1
3%
7-2
0.6%
8-3
0.1%
+5
9.9%
4-0
8.5%
5-1
5%
6-2
1.2%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
14.9%
3-0
9.4%
4-1
6.9%
5-2
2%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
18.7%
2-0
7.8%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2.8%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18.8%
1-0
4.3%
2-1
6.3%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
14.6%
8.3%
Draw
0-0
1.2%
1-1
3.5%
2-2
2.6%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
8.3%
4.5%
Win probability
0.82
Expected goals
0-1
1%
1-2
1.4%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
3.3%
0-2
0.4%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
0.9%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
England
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Oct. 1964 |
NIR
3 - 4
ENG
20%
19%
61%
|
88 | 68 | 20 | 0 |
| 06 Jun. 1964 |
ARG
1 - 0
ENG
47%
22%
31%
|
88 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Jun. 1964 |
ENG
1 - 1
POR
90%
7%
3%
|
88 | 71 | 17 | 0 |
| 30 May. 1964 |
BRA
5 - 1
ENG
55%
20%
25%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | -1 |
| 27 May. 1964 |
USA
0 - 10
ENG
25%
20%
54%
|
89 | 65 | 24 | 0 |
Matches
Belgium
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep. 1964 |
BEL
1 - 0
NED
63%
18%
20%
|
75 | 70 | 5 | 0 |
| 03 May. 1964 |
BEL
1 - 2
POR
67%
18%
16%
|
75 | 71 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 1964 |
SUI
2 - 0
BEL
49%
21%
30%
|
76 | 64 | 12 | -1 |
| 22 Mar. 1964 |
BEL
0 - 0
NED
64%
18%
18%
|
76 | 71 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Dec. 1963 |
FRA
1 - 2
BEL
67%
17%
16%
|
75 | 79 | 4 | +1 |