Hungary vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.6%
Win probability
2.44
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.5%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
5.6%
3-0
4.6%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
1.6%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.8%
2-0
5.6%
3-1
7%
4-2
3.3%
5-3
0.8%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
16.8%
1-0
4.6%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
5.4%
4-3
1.7%
5-4
0.3%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.6%
19%
Draw
0-0
1.9%
1-1
7%
2-2
6.6%
3-3
2.7%
4-4
0.6%
5-5
0.1%
0
19%
23.4%
Win probability
1.53
Expected goals
0-1
2.9%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
12.9%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
2.8%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0.1%
-2
6.6%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
2.7%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Hungary
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 May. 1949 |
HUN
6 - 1
AUT
69%
15%
16%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 1949 |
CSK
5 - 2
HUN
50%
20%
30%
|
85 | 80 | 5 | -1 |
| 07 Nov. 1948 |
BGR
1 - 0
HUN
25%
20%
55%
|
85 | 60 | 25 | 0 |
| 24 Oct. 1948 |
ROU
1 - 5
HUN
30%
21%
50%
|
84 | 67 | 17 | +1 |
| 03 Oct. 1948 |
HUN
2 - 1
AUT
68%
16%
16%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 May. 1949 |
ITA
3 - 1
AUT
75%
14%
12%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Mar. 1949 |
ESP
1 - 3
ITA
48%
22%
30%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Feb. 1949 |
ITA
4 - 1
POR
84%
10%
6%
|
88 | 72 | 16 | 0 |
| 05 Aug. 1948 |
DEN
5 - 3
ITA
43%
22%
35%
|
88 | 79 | 9 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 1948 |
ITA
9 - 0
USA
82%
11%
7%
|
88 | 71 | 17 | 0 |