Netherlands vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
52.5%
Win probability
2.01
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.5%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
4%
3-0
4.6%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
8.9%
2-0
6.9%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.9%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.8%
21.6%
Draw
0-0
3.4%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
2%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
21.6%
25.9%
Win probability
1.37
Expected goals
0-1
4.7%
1-2
6.4%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
14.7%
0-2
3.2%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
7.3%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Netherlands
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Nov. 1929 |
NED
1 - 4
NOR
69%
16%
15%
|
77 | 67 | 10 | 0 |
| 12 Jun. 1929 |
NOR
4 - 4
NED
40%
22%
37%
|
78 | 63 | 15 | -1 |
| 09 Jun. 1929 |
SWE
6 - 2
NED
68%
16%
16%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 04 Jun. 1929 |
NED
0 - 2
SCO
52%
22%
26%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | -1 |
| 05 May. 1929 |
BEL
3 - 1
NED
46%
22%
32%
|
79 | 71 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Mar. 1930 |
GER
0 - 2
ITA
54%
21%
25%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Feb. 1930 |
ITA
4 - 2
SUI
76%
14%
10%
|
80 | 64 | 16 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 1929 |
ITA
6 - 1
POR
67%
18%
15%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 1929 |
ITA
1 - 2
GER
63%
19%
19%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 1929 |
AUT
3 - 0
ITA
62%
19%
19%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | -1 |