Netherlands vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
74.5%
Win probability
2.79
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.5%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
2.2%
5-0
3.2%
6-1
1.5%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
5%
4-0
5.7%
5-1
3.2%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
9.7%
3-0
8.2%
4-1
5.7%
5-2
1.6%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
15.7%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
8.2%
4-2
2.9%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.4%
1-0
6.3%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.3%
14.6%
Draw
0-0
2.3%
1-1
6.3%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
14.6%
10.9%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
0-1
2.3%
1-2
3.2%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
7.3%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
2.6%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Netherlands
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Mar. 1921 |
NED
2 - 0
SUI
80%
12%
8%
|
80 | 69 | 11 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 1920 |
ESP
3 - 1
NED
47%
22%
31%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | -1 |
| 31 Aug. 1920 |
BEL
3 - 0
NED
52%
21%
28%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 1920 |
NED
5 - 4
SWE
73%
15%
12%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 1920 |
NED
3 - 0
LUX
84%
10%
6%
|
81 | 63 | 18 | 0 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 May. 1921 |
BEL
2 - 3
ITA
74%
15%
11%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 1921 |
ITA
2 - 1
SUI
65%
18%
16%
|
74 | 69 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 Feb. 1921 |
FRA
1 - 2
ITA
57%
21%
22%
|
73 | 70 | 3 | +1 |
| 02 Sep. 1920 |
ESP
2 - 0
ITA
63%
19%
18%
|
74 | 77 | 3 | -1 |
| 31 Aug. 1920 |
ITA
2 - 1
NOR
66%
18%
16%
|
74 | 65 | 9 | 0 |