Wales vs Serbia and Montenegro analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
72.4%
Win probability
2.19
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2.4%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.1%
4-0
5.5%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.3%
3-0
10.1%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
14.3%
2-0
13.8%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.9%
1-0
12.6%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
17.7%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
3%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
17.7%
9.8%
Win probability
0.66
Expected goals
0-1
3.8%
1-2
2.8%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7.4%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep. 2003 |
WAL
1 - 1
FIN
55%
26%
20%
|
87 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2003 |
ITA
4 - 0
WAL
74%
18%
8%
|
87 | 98 | 11 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2003 |
SCG
1 - 0
WAL
31%
25%
45%
|
87 | 77 | 10 | 0 |
| 27 May. 2003 |
USA
2 - 0
WAL
59%
23%
18%
|
87 | 91 | 4 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 2003 |
WAL
4 - 0
AZE
87%
10%
3%
|
87 | 63 | 24 | 0 |
Matches
Serbia and Montenegro
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep. 2003 |
SCG
1 - 1
ITA
9%
23%
68%
|
78 | 99 | 21 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2003 |
SCG
1 - 0
WAL
31%
25%
45%
|
77 | 87 | 10 | +1 |
| 11 Jun. 2003 |
AZE
2 - 1
SCG
22%
26%
52%
|
78 | 63 | 15 | -1 |
| 07 Jun. 2003 |
FIN
3 - 0
SCG
76%
15%
10%
|
78 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 03 Jun. 2003 |
ENG
2 - 1
SCG
92%
7%
1%
|
78 | 98 | 20 | 0 |