Wales vs Uruguay analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
47.7%
Win probability
1.34
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.8%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.1%
+3
5.8%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
3.8%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
<0%
+2
14.3%
1-0
14.8%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.2%
+1
25.1%
28.1%
Draw
0-0
11.1%
1-1
12.8%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
28.1%
24.2%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
0-1
9.6%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
16.3%
0-2
4.1%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
6%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Mar. 1986 |
IRL
0 - 1
WAL
50%
27%
23%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 1986 |
KSA
1 - 2
WAL
37%
27%
36%
|
84 | 73 | 11 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 1985 |
WAL
0 - 3
HUN
30%
27%
42%
|
84 | 90 | 6 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 1985 |
WAL
1 - 1
SCO
41%
28%
31%
|
84 | 88 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Jun. 1985 |
NOR
4 - 2
WAL
35%
28%
38%
|
84 | 69 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
Uruguay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Apr. 1986 |
MEX
1 - 0
URU
55%
26%
19%
|
87 | 88 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 1986 |
URU
2 - 2
POL
47%
27%
26%
|
86 | 87 | 1 | +1 |
| 07 Feb. 1986 |
USA
1 - 1
URU
29%
26%
46%
|
87 | 66 | 21 | -1 |
| 02 Feb. 1986 |
URU
3 - 1
CAN
75%
17%
8%
|
86 | 68 | 18 | +1 |
| 16 Oct. 1985 |
CHI
1 - 0
URU
47%
27%
25%
|
87 | 83 | 4 | -1 |