Wales vs Mexico analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
13.5%
Win probability
0.68
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.4%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.6%
2-0
1.9%
3-1
0.8%
4-2
0.1%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.9%
1-0
5.7%
2-1
3.5%
3-2
0.7%
4-3
0.1%
+1
10%
22.2%
Draw
0-0
8.3%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
3.1%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
22.2%
64.3%
Win probability
1.8
Expected goals
0-1
15%
1-2
9.2%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
26.4%
0-2
13.5%
1-3
5.6%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
20%
0-3
8.1%
1-4
2.5%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
11%
0-4
3.7%
1-5
0.9%
2-6
0.1%
-4
4.7%
0-5
1.3%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.6%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.5%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Mar. 2021 |
BEL
3 - 1
WAL
86%
10%
4%
|
85 | 93 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 Nov. 2020 |
WAL
3 - 1
FIN
47%
26%
27%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Nov. 2020 |
WAL
1 - 0
IRL
45%
28%
27%
|
85 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 2020 |
WAL
0 - 0
USA
27%
26%
47%
|
85 | 89 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 2020 |
BGR
0 - 1
WAL
40%
28%
32%
|
85 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Mexico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Nov. 2020 |
JPN
0 - 2
MEX
31%
25%
44%
|
91 | 88 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Nov. 2020 |
MEX
3 - 2
KOR
63%
22%
16%
|
91 | 88 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2020 |
MEX
2 - 2
ALG
78%
15%
6%
|
92 | 83 | 9 | -1 |
| 07 Oct. 2020 |
NED
0 - 1
MEX
61%
21%
18%
|
92 | 93 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2020 |
MEX
3 - 0
GTM
84%
12%
4%
|
91 | 73 | 18 | +1 |