Wales vs Northern Ireland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63%
Win probability
1.98
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.9%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.1%
3-0
7.4%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.2%
2-0
11.2%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.3%
1-0
11.3%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.5%
21%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
10%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
21%
16%
Win probability
0.89
Expected goals
0-1
5%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.9%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.9%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 May. 1980 |
SCO
1 - 0
WAL
68%
21%
11%
|
81 | 86 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 May. 1980 |
WAL
4 - 1
ENG
17%
25%
58%
|
80 | 93 | 13 | +1 |
| 21 Nov. 1979 |
TUR
1 - 0
WAL
39%
27%
34%
|
80 | 71 | 9 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 1979 |
BRD
5 - 1
WAL
85%
12%
3%
|
80 | 93 | 13 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 1979 |
WAL
2 - 1
IRL
59%
22%
19%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Northern Ireland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 May. 1980 |
ENG
1 - 1
NIR
84%
12%
3%
|
77 | 92 | 15 | 0 |
| 16 May. 1980 |
NIR
1 - 0
SCO
32%
28%
40%
|
77 | 86 | 9 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 1980 |
ISR
0 - 0
NIR
60%
22%
19%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 Nov. 1979 |
NIR
1 - 0
IRL
51%
23%
25%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | +1 |
| 17 Oct. 1979 |
NIR
1 - 5
ENG
18%
25%
57%
|
76 | 92 | 16 | 0 |