Wales vs England analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
15.5%
Win probability
0.66
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.7%
2-0
2.4%
3-1
0.8%
4-2
0.1%
+2
3.3%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
3.7%
3-2
0.6%
4-3
0.1%
+1
11.5%
25.3%
Draw
0-0
10.9%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
2.9%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
25.3%
59.2%
Win probability
1.56
Expected goals
0-1
17%
1-2
8.7%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
27.3%
0-2
13.3%
1-3
4.5%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0%
-2
18.4%
0-3
6.9%
1-4
1.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
8.8%
0-4
2.7%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0%
-4
3.3%
0-5
0.8%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-6%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug. 2005 |
WAL
0 - 0
SVN
56%
26%
19%
|
87 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 2005 |
AUT
1 - 0
WAL
56%
23%
21%
|
87 | 88 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 2005 |
WAL
0 - 2
AUT
35%
26%
39%
|
87 | 88 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Feb. 2005 |
WAL
2 - 0
HUN
43%
26%
31%
|
87 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2004 |
WAL
2 - 3
POL
32%
27%
41%
|
87 | 91 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
England
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug. 2005 |
DEN
4 - 1
ENG
32%
28%
40%
|
98 | 94 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 May. 2005 |
COL
2 - 3
ENG
23%
28%
49%
|
98 | 91 | 7 | 0 |
| 28 May. 2005 |
USA
1 - 2
ENG
28%
28%
44%
|
98 | 92 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 2005 |
ENG
2 - 0
AZE
81%
14%
5%
|
98 | 64 | 34 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 2005 |
ENG
4 - 0
NIR
79%
15%
6%
|
98 | 84 | 14 | 0 |