Wales vs England analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
20.8%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
1%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.5%
2-0
3.1%
3-1
1.8%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.3%
1-0
6.2%
2-1
5.5%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
13.5%
23.3%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.3%
55.9%
Win probability
1.78
Expected goals
0-1
11.2%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.4%
0-2
10%
1-3
5.8%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
17.2%
0-3
5.9%
1-4
2.6%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0%
-3
9%
0-4
2.6%
1-5
0.9%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
3.7%
0-5
0.9%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.2%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Nov. 1969 |
ITA
4 - 1
WAL
83%
12%
6%
|
72 | 90 | 18 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 1969 |
WAL
1 - 3
DDR
46%
24%
30%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | -1 |
| 10 May. 1969 |
NIR
0 - 0
WAL
63%
19%
19%
|
73 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 May. 1969 |
ENG
2 - 1
WAL
86%
10%
4%
|
73 | 91 | 18 | 0 |
| 03 May. 1969 |
WAL
3 - 5
SCO
34%
24%
41%
|
74 | 84 | 10 | -1 |
Matches
England
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb. 1970 |
BEL
1 - 3
ENG
26%
24%
49%
|
91 | 79 | 12 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 1970 |
ENG
0 - 0
NED
86%
10%
4%
|
91 | 75 | 16 | 0 |
| 10 Dec. 1969 |
ENG
1 - 0
POR
85%
11%
5%
|
91 | 80 | 11 | 0 |
| 05 Nov. 1969 |
NED
0 - 1
ENG
22%
24%
55%
|
91 | 75 | 16 | 0 |
| 12 Jun. 1969 |
BRA
2 - 1
ENG
54%
22%
24%
|
91 | 90 | 1 | 0 |