Wales vs England analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
18.7%
Win probability
1.17
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
0.9%
4-1
0.6%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
1.6%
2-0
2.2%
3-1
1.9%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
4.9%
1-0
3.8%
2-1
5%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
11.6%
19.5%
Draw
0-0
3.3%
1-1
8.6%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
19.5%
61.9%
Win probability
2.25
Expected goals
0-1
7.4%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
4.2%
3-4
0.9%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
22.4%
0-2
8.3%
1-3
7.3%
2-4
2.4%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0%
-2
18.4%
0-3
6.2%
1-4
4.1%
2-5
1.1%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
11.6%
0-4
3.5%
1-5
1.8%
2-6
0.4%
3-7
0.1%
-4
5.8%
0-5
1.6%
1-6
0.7%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
2.4%
0-6
0.6%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.9%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Apr. 1959 |
NIR
4 - 1
WAL
48%
20%
31%
|
73 | 68 | 5 | 0 |
| 26 Nov. 1958 |
ENG
2 - 2
WAL
90%
7%
3%
|
73 | 88 | 15 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 1958 |
WAL
0 - 3
SCO
45%
23%
33%
|
73 | 82 | 9 | 0 |
| 19 Jun. 1958 |
BRA
1 - 0
WAL
86%
9%
5%
|
74 | 88 | 14 | -1 |
| 17 Jun. 1958 |
WAL
2 - 1
HUN
31%
23%
45%
|
73 | 91 | 18 | +1 |
Matches
England
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 May. 1959 |
USA
1 - 8
ENG
31%
22%
47%
|
87 | 65 | 22 | 0 |
| 24 May. 1959 |
MEX
2 - 1
ENG
35%
22%
43%
|
87 | 76 | 11 | 0 |
| 17 May. 1959 |
PER
4 - 1
ENG
35%
22%
43%
|
88 | 76 | 12 | -1 |
| 13 May. 1959 |
BRA
2 - 0
ENG
56%
20%
24%
|
88 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 May. 1959 |
ENG
2 - 2
ITA
74%
15%
12%
|
88 | 86 | 2 | 0 |