Wales vs England analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
29.9%
Win probability
1.29
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.9%
3-0
1.9%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.1%
2-0
4.4%
3-1
3.1%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
8.5%
1-0
6.8%
2-1
7.2%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
17.1%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.1%
46%
Win probability
1.65
Expected goals
0-1
8.7%
1-2
9.3%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22%
0-2
7.2%
1-3
5.1%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
13.9%
0-3
4%
1-4
2.1%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
6.6%
0-4
1.6%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.5%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.8%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Mar. 1908 |
SCO
2 - 1
WAL
76%
14%
10%
|
64 | 74 | 10 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 1907 |
ENG
1 - 1
WAL
6%
17%
77%
|
64 | 20 | 44 | 0 |
| 04 Mar. 1907 |
WAL
1 - 0
SCO
38%
24%
39%
|
63 | 74 | 11 | +1 |
| 23 Feb. 1907 |
INE
2 - 3
WAL
42%
23%
35%
|
62 | 55 | 7 | +1 |
| 02 Apr. 1906 |
WAL
4 - 4
IDI
49%
23%
29%
|
62 | 67 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
England
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb. 1908 |
IDI
1 - 3
ENG
39%
24%
37%
|
78 | 67 | 11 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 1906 |
SCO
2 - 1
ENG
49%
23%
28%
|
78 | 73 | 5 | 0 |
| 19 Mar. 1906 |
WAL
0 - 1
ENG
30%
24%
46%
|
78 | 63 | 15 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 1906 |
IDI
0 - 5
ENG
43%
23%
34%
|
78 | 69 | 9 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 1905 |
ENG
1 - 0
SCO
68%
17%
15%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | +1 |