Wales vs Spain analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
9.9%
Win probability
0.62
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.3%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.4%
2-0
1.3%
3-1
0.6%
4-2
0.1%
+2
1.9%
1-0
4.2%
2-1
2.7%
3-2
0.6%
4-3
0.1%
+1
7.5%
18.7%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
2.8%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
18.7%
71.4%
Win probability
2.07
Expected goals
0-1
14.1%
1-2
9%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
25.2%
0-2
14.6%
1-3
6.2%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
21.9%
0-3
10.1%
1-4
3.2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
13.7%
0-4
5.2%
1-5
1.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
6.7%
0-5
2.2%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0%
-5
2.6%
0-6
0.7%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.9%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Sep. 2018 |
DEN
2 - 0
WAL
63%
22%
15%
|
84 | 88 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2018 |
WAL
4 - 1
IRL
37%
29%
34%
|
83 | 86 | 3 | +1 |
| 29 May. 2018 |
MEX
0 - 0
WAL
71%
20%
10%
|
83 | 91 | 8 | 0 |
| 14 Nov. 2017 |
WAL
1 - 1
PAN
47%
27%
26%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 2017 |
FRA
2 - 0
WAL
82%
14%
5%
|
83 | 94 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Spain
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep. 2018 |
ESP
6 - 0
CRO
70%
18%
12%
|
95 | 90 | 5 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 2018 |
ENG
1 - 2
ESP
31%
25%
43%
|
95 | 92 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Jul. 2018 |
ESP
1 - 1
RUS
77%
15%
9%
|
95 | 87 | 8 | 0 |
| 25 Jun. 2018 |
ESP
2 - 2
MAR
82%
13%
6%
|
95 | 85 | 10 | 0 |
| 20 Jun. 2018 |
IRN
0 - 1
ESP
15%
20%
65%
|
95 | 87 | 8 | 0 |