Wales vs Scotland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
40.1%
Win probability
1.74
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.2%
3-0
2.9%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
5.7%
2-0
5%
3-1
4.8%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
12%
1-0
5.7%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
19.2%
22.5%
Draw
0-0
3.3%
1-1
9.6%
2-2
7%
3-3
2.3%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
22.5%
37.4%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
0-1
5.5%
1-2
8%
2-3
3.9%
3-4
1%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
18.5%
0-2
4.6%
1-3
4.5%
2-4
1.6%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
11.1%
0-3
2.6%
1-4
1.9%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
5.1%
0-4
1.1%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
1.9%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep. 1943 |
ENG
8 - 3
WAL
78%
13%
9%
|
71 | 85 | 14 | 0 |
| 21 May. 1939 |
FRA
2 - 1
WAL
58%
20%
23%
|
72 | 68 | 4 | -1 |
| 15 Mar. 1939 |
WAL
3 - 1
NIR
71%
16%
13%
|
71 | 61 | 10 | +1 |
| 09 Nov. 1938 |
SCO
3 - 2
WAL
69%
17%
14%
|
72 | 83 | 11 | -1 |
| 22 Oct. 1938 |
WAL
4 - 2
ENG
31%
21%
49%
|
70 | 85 | 15 | +2 |
Matches
Scotland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 May. 1946 |
SCO
3 - 1
SUI
70%
17%
14%
|
83 | 72 | 11 | 0 |
| 23 Jan. 1946 |
SCO
2 - 2
BEL
74%
15%
11%
|
83 | 60 | 23 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 1939 |
SCO
1 - 2
ENG
44%
21%
35%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 07 Dec. 1938 |
SCO
3 - 1
HUN
50%
21%
29%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 1938 |
SCO
3 - 2
WAL
69%
17%
14%
|
83 | 72 | 11 | 0 |