Wales vs Bulgaria analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
36.6%
Win probability
1.13
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.9%
3-0
2.6%
4-1
0.8%
5-2
0.1%
+3
3.5%
2-0
7%
3-1
2.8%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
10.3%
1-0
12.4%
2-1
7.5%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.2%
+1
21.6%
29.1%
Draw
0-0
11%
1-1
13.4%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
<0%
0
29.1%
34.3%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
11.9%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
20.8%
0-2
6.4%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
9.5%
0-3
2.3%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
-3
3.1%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 May. 2006 |
WLS
2 - 1
TTO
58%
25%
18%
|
87 | 79 | 8 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 2006 |
WLS
0 - 0
PRY
33%
29%
38%
|
87 | 90 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Nov. 2005 |
CYP
1 - 0
WLS
30%
27%
44%
|
87 | 73 | 14 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2005 |
WLS
2 - 0
AZE
77%
17%
7%
|
87 | 63 | 24 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 2005 |
NIR
2 - 3
WLS
36%
28%
35%
|
87 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Bulgaria
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May. 2006 |
SCT
5 - 1
BGR
42%
29%
29%
|
90 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 May. 2006 |
JPN
1 - 2
BGR
53%
26%
21%
|
89 | 90 | 1 | +1 |
| 01 Mar. 2006 |
MKD
0 - 1
BGR
24%
28%
48%
|
89 | 75 | 14 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 2005 |
MEX
0 - 3
BGR
68%
20%
13%
|
89 | 93 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 2005 |
BGR
6 - 2
GEO
74%
17%
9%
|
89 | 76 | 13 | 0 |