Wales vs Brazil analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
15.5%
Win probability
0.68
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.7%
2-0
2.3%
3-1
0.8%
4-2
0.1%
+2
3.3%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
3.8%
3-2
0.7%
4-3
0.1%
+1
11.4%
24.7%
Draw
0-0
10.2%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
3%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
24.7%
59.7%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
0-1
16.4%
1-2
8.9%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
27.1%
0-2
13.2%
1-3
4.8%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0%
-2
18.6%
0-3
7%
1-4
1.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
9.2%
0-4
2.8%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
-4
3.5%
0-5
0.9%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1.1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May. 1983 |
NIR
0 - 1
WAL
47%
29%
24%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 May. 1983 |
WAL
0 - 2
SCO
42%
28%
30%
|
83 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 1983 |
WAL
1 - 0
BGR
59%
24%
16%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 1983 |
ENG
2 - 1
WAL
80%
15%
5%
|
83 | 92 | 9 | 0 |
| 15 Dec. 1982 |
YUG
4 - 4
WAL
75%
17%
8%
|
83 | 88 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Brazil
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Jun. 1983 |
POR
0 - 4
BRA
18%
26%
56%
|
96 | 84 | 12 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 1983 |
BRA
3 - 2
CHI
87%
11%
3%
|
96 | 81 | 15 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 1982 |
ITA
3 - 2
BRA
43%
25%
32%
|
96 | 91 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Jul. 1982 |
ARG
1 - 3
BRA
46%
24%
30%
|
96 | 91 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 Jun. 1982 |
BRA
4 - 0
NZL
89%
8%
4%
|
96 | 65 | 31 | 0 |