France vs Poland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
73.5%
Win probability
2.79
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.4%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
2.1%
5-0
3%
6-1
1.5%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.9%
4-0
5.4%
5-1
3.2%
6-2
0.8%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
9.5%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
5.7%
5-2
1.7%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
15.4%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
8.2%
4-2
3%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.2%
1-0
6%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.3%
14.9%
Draw
0-0
2.1%
1-1
6.3%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
14.9%
11.6%
Win probability
1.05
Expected goals
0-1
2.3%
1-2
3.3%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
7.6%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
2.9%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
France
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Dec. 1961 |
FRA
1 - 1
ESP
40%
22%
38%
|
79 | 86 | 7 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 1961 |
BGR
1 - 0
FRA
47%
23%
31%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | -1 |
| 18 Oct. 1961 |
BEL
3 - 0
FRA
43%
22%
35%
|
80 | 68 | 12 | 0 |
| 28 Sep. 1961 |
FRA
5 - 1
FIN
87%
8%
4%
|
80 | 43 | 37 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 1961 |
ESP
2 - 0
FRA
73%
15%
12%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Poland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov. 1961 |
POL
5 - 0
DEN
50%
21%
29%
|
69 | 78 | 9 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 1961 |
POL
3 - 1
DDR
84%
9%
7%
|
69 | 33 | 36 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 1961 |
POL
0 - 2
GER
37%
22%
41%
|
70 | 85 | 15 | -1 |
| 25 Jun. 1961 |
POL
1 - 1
YUG
28%
22%
50%
|
69 | 87 | 18 | +1 |
| 04 Jun. 1961 |
YUG
2 - 1
POL
87%
9%
4%
|
70 | 86 | 16 | -1 |