France vs Poland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51.4%
Win probability
2.25
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.7%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
4.3%
3-0
3.8%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
9%
2-0
5.1%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
2.9%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
15.2%
1-0
4.6%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
5.2%
4-3
1.6%
5-4
0.3%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.2%
20.2%
Draw
0-0
2%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
7%
3-3
2.9%
4-4
0.7%
5-5
0.1%
6-6
<0%
0
20.2%
28.4%
Win probability
1.65
Expected goals
0-1
3.4%
1-2
6.2%
2-3
3.8%
3-4
1.2%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
14.8%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
3.4%
2-4
1.6%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0.1%
-2
8.2%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
3.6%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
France
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Dec. 1938 |
ITA
1 - 0
FRA
77%
13%
10%
|
66 | 87 | 21 | 0 |
| 12 Jun. 1938 |
ITA
3 - 1
FRA
76%
13%
11%
|
66 | 86 | 20 | 0 |
| 05 Jun. 1938 |
FRA
3 - 1
BEL
58%
19%
24%
|
65 | 62 | 3 | +1 |
| 26 May. 1938 |
FRA
2 - 4
ENG
28%
21%
51%
|
66 | 84 | 18 | -1 |
| 24 Mar. 1938 |
FRA
6 - 1
BGR
57%
19%
24%
|
65 | 65 | 0 | +1 |
Matches
Poland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov. 1938 |
IRL
3 - 2
POL
58%
19%
23%
|
71 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 1938 |
POL
2 - 2
NOR
53%
20%
27%
|
71 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 1938 |
POL
4 - 4
YUG
70%
16%
15%
|
71 | 63 | 8 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 1938 |
LVA
2 - 1
POL
44%
22%
35%
|
72 | 64 | 8 | -1 |
| 18 Sep. 1938 |
GER
4 - 1
POL
71%
15%
14%
|
72 | 81 | 9 | 0 |