France vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
33.3%
Win probability
1.46
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.3%
3-0
2.2%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4%
2-0
4.6%
3-1
3.8%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
9.7%
1-0
6.2%
2-1
7.7%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
17.9%
23.5%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
6.5%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.5%
43.2%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
0-1
7.2%
1-2
8.9%
2-3
3.7%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
-1
20.7%
0-2
6.1%
1-3
5%
2-4
1.6%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
13%
0-3
3.4%
1-4
2.1%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
6.2%
0-4
1.5%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.3%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
France
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct. 1937 |
NED
2 - 3
FRA
72%
14%
13%
|
63 | 77 | 14 | 0 |
| 10 Oct. 1937 |
FRA
2 - 1
SUI
61%
19%
20%
|
62 | 61 | 1 | +1 |
| 23 May. 1937 |
FRA
0 - 2
IRL
51%
21%
28%
|
63 | 71 | 8 | -1 |
| 21 Mar. 1937 |
GER
4 - 0
FRA
76%
13%
11%
|
63 | 80 | 17 | 0 |
| 21 Feb. 1937 |
BEL
3 - 1
FRA
54%
19%
27%
|
64 | 62 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct. 1937 |
SUI
2 - 2
ITA
33%
23%
44%
|
86 | 61 | 25 | 0 |
| 27 May. 1937 |
NOR
1 - 3
ITA
44%
23%
33%
|
86 | 74 | 12 | 0 |
| 23 May. 1937 |
CSK
0 - 1
ITA
53%
21%
26%
|
86 | 81 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 1937 |
ITA
2 - 0
HUN
65%
17%
18%
|
85 | 80 | 5 | +1 |
| 21 Mar. 1937 |
AUT
2 - 0
ITA
58%
20%
23%
|
86 | 83 | 3 | -1 |