France vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43.6%
Win probability
1.76
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.5%
3-0
3.4%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.4%
2-0
5.9%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.1%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.5%
23%
Draw
0-0
3.8%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
2%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23%
33.4%
Win probability
1.51
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
7.6%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
17.6%
0-2
4.4%
1-3
3.9%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
9.7%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1.5%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
4.1%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.4%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
France
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jan. 1911 |
FRA
0 - 3
HUN
48%
22%
31%
|
69 | 74 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 May. 1910 |
ITA
6 - 2
FRA
73%
15%
12%
|
70 | 77 | 7 | -1 |
| 03 Apr. 1910 |
FRA
0 - 4
BEL
44%
22%
34%
|
71 | 77 | 6 | -1 |
| 09 May. 1909 |
BEL
5 - 2
FRA
72%
15%
13%
|
72 | 76 | 4 | -1 |
| 22 Oct. 1908 |
DEN
17 - 1
FRA
64%
18%
18%
|
74 | 77 | 3 | -2 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Jan. 1911 |
ITA
0 - 1
HUN
63%
18%
19%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 May. 1910 |
HUN
6 - 1
ITA
54%
21%
25%
|
78 | 72 | 6 | -1 |
| 15 May. 1910 |
ITA
6 - 2
FRA
73%
15%
12%
|
77 | 70 | 7 | +1 |